Project Economics & Monte Carlo Valuator

▮ Project

§ Fiscal & Discounting

Base Case Valuation — deterministic, updates live

NPV @ base

—

MM$ (post-tax)

IRR

—

post-tax, real terms

Recoverable

—

MMbbl total

Gov’t take

—

of project value

Peak rate

—

Payback

—

Gross revenue

—

Undisc. cashflow

—

▤ Production & Cashflow Profile

Uncertainty Ranges

Define each driver’s Low and High case as a % change from the base value above. The base value is treated as the P50 (median), Low as the P10 and High as the P90, sampled from a lognormal (asymmetric ranges create realistic skew). Every included driver is sampled independently and the full economic model is re-run each iteration.

	Value Driver	Low %	High %	Low → High value

Iterations

🎲

Run the simulation to see the NPV probability distribution

S-curve · histogram · tornado sensitivity — all built from your base case above.

Monte Carlo Results — NPV Distribution

P10 — Low

—

MM$

P50 — MC NPV

—

MM$ · median

P90 — High

—

MM$

Expected NPV

—

MM$ · E[NPV], MC mean

Prob. NPV > 0

—

chance of profit

📈 NPV S-Curve — Cumulative Probability

📊 NPV Distribution — Histogram

🌪️ Tornado — NPV Sensitivity (each driver Low ↔ High, others at base)

Want this tailored to your asset?

This is a simplified single-product screening model. Enerquill Advisory builds bespoke, auditable economic & risk models around your fields, fiscal terms and portfolio.

PSC, service & sliding-scale fiscal regimes
Multi-product & portfolio roll-up
Correlated risks & custom price decks
Reserves-constrained profiles
Live Excel model & branded reporting

Get in touch → Visit Enerquill Advisory